Hedging is defined as holding two or more positions at the same time, where the purpose is to offset the losses in the first position by the gains received from the other position.
Usual hedging is to open a position for a currency A, then opening a reverse for this position on the same currency A. This type of hedging protects the trader from getting a margin call, as the second position will gain if the first loses, and vice versa.
However, traders developed more hedging techniques in order to try to benefit form hedging and make profits instead of just to offset losses.
In this page, we will discuss, some of the hedging techniques.
1. 100% Hedging.
This technique is the safest ever, and the most profitable of all hedging techniques while keeping minimal risks. This technique uses the arbitrage of interest rates (roll over rates) between brokers. In this type of hedging you will need to use two brokers. One broker which pays or charges interest at end of day, and the other should not charge or pay interest. However, in such cases the trader should try to maximize your profits, or in other words to benefit the utmost of this type of hedging.
The main idea about this type of hedging is to open a position of currency X at a broker which will pay you a high interest for every night the position is carried, and to open a reverse of that position for the same currency X with the broker that does not charge interest for carrying the trade. This way you will gain the interest or rollover that is credited to your account.
However there are many factors that you should take into consideration.
a. The currency to use. The best pair to use is the GBPJPY, because at the time of writing this article, the interest credited to your account will be 24 usd for every 1 regular long lot you have. However you should check with your broker because each broker credits a different amount. The range can be from $10 to $26.
b. The interest free broker. This is the hardest part. Before you open your account with such a broker, you should check the following: i. Does the broker allow opening the position for an unlimited time? ii. Does the broker charge commissions?
Some brokers charge $5 flat every night for each lot held, this is a good thing, although it seems not. Because, when the broker charges you money for keeping your position, the your broker will likely let you hold your position indefinitely.
c. Equity of your account. Hedging requires lots of money. For example, if you want to use the GBPJPY, you will need 20,000USD in each account. This is very necessary because the max monthly range for GBPJPY in the last few years was 2000 pips. You do not want one of your accounts to get a margin call. Do not forget that when you open your 2 positions at the 2 brokers, you will pay the spread, which is around 16 pips together. If you are using 1 regular lot, then this is around 145 usd. So you will enter the trades, losing 145 usd. So you will need the first 6 days just to cover the spread cost. Thus if you get a margin call again, you will need to close your other position, and then transfer money to your other account, and then re-open the positions. Every time this happens, you will lose 145 usd!
It is very important not to get a margin call. This can be maintained by a large equity, or a fast efficient way to transfer money between brokers.
d. Money management. One of the best ways to manage such an account is to monthly withdraw profits and balancing your positions. This can be done by withdrawing the excess from one account, take out the profits, and depositing the excess into the losing account to balance them. However, this can be costly. You should also check with your broker if he allows withdrawals while your position is still open. One efficient way of doing this is using the brokerage service withdrawals which is provided by third party companies.
by Yannis Karamanakis
http://www.myfxreport.com
Showing posts with label Forex Trading Strategy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Forex Trading Strategy. Show all posts
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Automated Trading Systems for Financial Markets and Recommendations for Their Usage
1. Introductions
Today, using information and trading platforms has become a de facto requirement for successful trading in the financial markets. Their advantages as compared to conventional trading schemes include, for example, an unprecedented speed of processing and delivery of information to end users, the level of integration with data providers, and a wide array of built-in technical analysis instruments.
At the same time, an investor opening an account with a brokerage firm simply cannot simultaneously manage the real-time analysis and trade in more than 4-6 financial instruments in several markets 24 hours 7 days a week. This brings about the need to employ automatic trading systems in the form of runtime environment with client and server parts and the programs to control these systems (scripts).
2. Comparative Analysis of the Problem Area
Various software components embrace the entire target sector of the market-from analytics and forecasting to complex trade and administration. The components of a trading platform provide its clients-brokers, dealers, traders, financial analysts and advisors-just the service they need at the very moment they need it, from immediate round-the-clock access to information of concern by means of mobile devices, to multi-move trading operations in the major client terminal.
The software market offers a great many of information and trading platforms that differ, first of all, in the functionality of the client and server parts, and the list of services provided by the financial company once an account has been opened. However, only a relatively small number of software solutions include the components that automate trading.
2.1. MetaTrader4-based Solutions
One of the world's most widely used trade platform products is apparently MetaTrader4, developed by MetaQuotes Software Corporat?on for Forex market trading. The platform includes an integrated development environment (IDE) MetaEd?tor, intended for writing scripts in a programming language called MetaQuotes Language, or MQL4 for short. The language's syntax is based on the classic C language syntax, and the flow logic has not been significantly changed since the previous version of the platform that used MQL II as the programming language. The new automated trade framework is, undoubtedly, an evolution of the previous one. Both languages feature good functionality, with an optimum set of built-in trading and utility functions which is quite sufficient to implement the basic operations, and a facility to define custom functions to help implement non-standard ideas.
From the programming point of view, MQL4 is much more convenient that its predecessor; this language is more oriented at professional programmers, while MQL II, in my opinion, will rather suit financial experts wishing to build trading programs (or trading advisors, in the MetaQuotes terminology) of their own.
2.2. Omega Research-based Solutions
In the New World, the vast majority of companies use the Omega Research platform developed by TradeStation Securities, Inc. This platform has long ago proven its worth at the worldwide market, and to date experts consider it to be the best system for technical analysis. The provided IDE called Omega Research PowerEditor is intended to create control programs in EasyLanguage (EL).
The language's major advantage that strikes the eye is the easiness (hence is the name) of placing opening and closing orders. The corresponding program instructions can be written such as if we were formulating an order to our broker in the plain human language. In MQL4, for example, placing an order to open a position would involve specifying about a dozen of various parameters. In EasyLanguage, the same can be expressed in a short statement using a few words. Working with technical indicators is about that simple, too. But don't fall under an illusion: when creating these simple commands, language developers sacrificed the functionality and limited the possible ways of using a particular function, therefore effectively depriving the IDE users of the opportunity to accurately implement their own algorithms.
TradeStation decided not to create extensive libraries of built-in trading and utility functions but to limit to only an essential set. As the platform advanced, the number of functions written by both in-house and third-party developers grew, and TradeStation simply included them as user-defined functions into the repository of its scripts. As a result, the functionality offered to users is not in the least scarcer than that of MetaQuotes product.
PowerEditor provides a built-in dictionary that lets user search and get help on the available functions. Another handy tool worth mentioning is the strategy builder. Using the strategy builder, the user can easily create a basic algorithm for his or her trading program, and then modify and adjust it as necessary.
EasyLanguage is an old-timer and pioneer in the field of creating automated trading systems for the stock market. It was the basis for the development of MQL II. EasyLanguage will be a good choice for programmers, but still a better one for financial experts more oriented at analyzing the market than trading.
2.3. ProTrader-based Solutions
Professional financial experts can choose the ProTrader2 or ProTraderFX platform as their working tool, depending on the type of the financial market-stock or Forex, respectively. The two platforms are developed and supported by PFSoft LLC. While featuring the specially developed ProTrader Language (PTL), the provided IDE named PTL Builder offers also the opportunity to create scripts in MQLII, MQL4 and EasyLanguage. For this, the text of the program is translated to a language-independent code. Therefore, at runtime it does not matter in which language the script was written. This technology does not only enable creating new scripts, but makes it possible to use freely the entire accumulated collection of scripts that many experienced traders possess.
The main idea put into the new scripting language was to ensure maximum reliability and predictability of the scripts being run. The PTL language is built so as to minimize the possibility of making a mistake in the text of a user's script-the potentially dangerous points will be detected even before the script is tested or launched.
Regardless of the programming language chosen, the platform works with verified managed code while running the script. This Microsoft-developed technology enables proper handling of errors that cannot be detected before the script is run. This means the program will not fail and will not perform any unwanted operations that might be due to critical errors or damage caused by another program, for which the account holder would eventually have to pay.
The PTL Builder IDE will serve well both financial experts and programmers thanks to its support of different programming languages and provided tools such as tester and debugger.
2.4. Solution Comparison
The above IDEs have their specific feature sets. The table below provides a summary comparison of the capabilities offered by each.
3. Approaches for Creating Automated Trading Systems and Recommendations for Using Them
It hardly needs mentioning that choosing an information and trading platform should be taken with all seriousness. For those who plan to use an automated trading system in their business, below are some points I would recommend considering, based on my personal experience.
3.1. Choosing a Working Environment
First of all, define the type of tasks the automated trading system is to perform. These could be:
Actual trading: opening and closing positions in selected instrument(s).
Secondary support-type functions. These could include placing protective orders, creating and sending out reports of notifications.
Analyzing the market with different technical analysis tools using your own algorithm.
Now, after you have studied user comments on the Internet and perhaps consulted your broker, proceed to getting the feel of the products offered. I strongly encourage you not to just have a cursory look, but to test the system for a day of two, thankfully, most of the large companies will let you sign up for a demo account for testing. Pay attention to both the convenience of the IDE and the tools that go with it, and to reliability and security of the control programs created with the IDE.
3.2. Creating a Control Program
If you are planning to create your own scripts, take the time to study the documentation for the programming language and the IDE. Naturally, for an automated trading system to be expertly organized, the scripts should be written by qualified professionals in the field of programming and finance. In case you wish to use one of the classic programs, remember that most of them are of trial, demonstration nature. They are good for testing the automated trading system or to be used as a basis for your own programs, but as self-sustaining, ready-to-use solutions they are of little avail.
If you decide to use programs written by third-party developers, keep in mind that good solutions will have to be paid for. The cost of one innovative strategy varies between $300 and $500, but the price for fine-tuned strategies that use advanced mathematical and economic techniques and especially for winners and runners-up of automated trading championships may exceed $1,000.
3.3. Testing Scripts
When using an automated trading system, always test your scripts. The procedure can be as follows:
1. Test the program in a script tester (if such facility is available in your IDE) several times, varying the chart period, the instrument being traded, and the program settings. Try to model the conditions close to the actual state of the market.
2. Test the script in a demo account (if such an opportunity is available). At this stage, it is important to let the program run for a sufficiently long time (it is defined by the period of the chart). Do not stop the test if the program has at once produced a big gain or a big loss. The usefulness of the script can only be estimated after it has worked for a significant amount of time.
3. Run the script in the live account. At this stage, it is not advisable to interfere with the script-for example, close the positions it has opened or modify their settings-or you can upset the internal logic of the program.
3.4. How Not to Fall Prey to Tricks When Choosing a Script
Remember that there are no absolutely perfect advisers. So, do not let them sell you the Brooklyn Bridge-if you had a system that brings in fabulous profits, would you sell it? There is only one advice-a rigorous comprehensive testing will help you get the right impression about the script offered.
Usually, script vendors describe their products with the results of their own testing. In most cases, however, such results are very slanted. Remember that testing should always be performed on several histories, or you can simply adjust to one history fragment and show sky-high results. Based on the NFL theorem, it is fair to say that it is impossible to create a script that would the best of all those existing, in all instruments.
Some professional programmers use sophisticated mathematical tools to endow their programs with artificial intelligence-neural networks, forecasting and evolutionary algorithms are no longer surprising. I would not recommend overestimating such systems-complex forecasting algorithms are very sensitive to errors and parameter settings, while simple schemes are not of much help to the advisor when it comes to generating trade signals, and can only be used to raise the price of the script.
4. Conclusion
In this article, I neither discuss any programming rules for creating the advisors, nor the specifics of writing scripts in a particular language. On these subjects, there are whole books written as well as a number of articles. My aim was to present several points which I think to be quite important but which have not been sufficiently covered in existing publications.
So, are automated trading systems your ally or enemy? When used carefully and without hasty judgments, an automated trading system can facilitate the financial expert's work and bring in certain profits. But when used incorrectly, incompletely tested, or having settings changed frequently, the automated trading system can lose the money you entrust to it.
Remember that an automated trading system is not going to do your job for you without any effort on your part. Use it to solve your existing problems and not add new ones.
5. References
1. MetaQuotes — developer of MetaTrader, MQL2 and MQL4
2. TradeStation — developers of TradeStation and EasyLanguage
3. PFSoft — developers of ProTraderFX, ProTrader2 and ProTraderLanguage
by Nikita Laukhin
Automated Trading and Scripts Analyst of PFSoft Company.
Today, using information and trading platforms has become a de facto requirement for successful trading in the financial markets. Their advantages as compared to conventional trading schemes include, for example, an unprecedented speed of processing and delivery of information to end users, the level of integration with data providers, and a wide array of built-in technical analysis instruments.
At the same time, an investor opening an account with a brokerage firm simply cannot simultaneously manage the real-time analysis and trade in more than 4-6 financial instruments in several markets 24 hours 7 days a week. This brings about the need to employ automatic trading systems in the form of runtime environment with client and server parts and the programs to control these systems (scripts).
2. Comparative Analysis of the Problem Area
Various software components embrace the entire target sector of the market-from analytics and forecasting to complex trade and administration. The components of a trading platform provide its clients-brokers, dealers, traders, financial analysts and advisors-just the service they need at the very moment they need it, from immediate round-the-clock access to information of concern by means of mobile devices, to multi-move trading operations in the major client terminal.
The software market offers a great many of information and trading platforms that differ, first of all, in the functionality of the client and server parts, and the list of services provided by the financial company once an account has been opened. However, only a relatively small number of software solutions include the components that automate trading.
2.1. MetaTrader4-based Solutions
One of the world's most widely used trade platform products is apparently MetaTrader4, developed by MetaQuotes Software Corporat?on for Forex market trading. The platform includes an integrated development environment (IDE) MetaEd?tor, intended for writing scripts in a programming language called MetaQuotes Language, or MQL4 for short. The language's syntax is based on the classic C language syntax, and the flow logic has not been significantly changed since the previous version of the platform that used MQL II as the programming language. The new automated trade framework is, undoubtedly, an evolution of the previous one. Both languages feature good functionality, with an optimum set of built-in trading and utility functions which is quite sufficient to implement the basic operations, and a facility to define custom functions to help implement non-standard ideas.
From the programming point of view, MQL4 is much more convenient that its predecessor; this language is more oriented at professional programmers, while MQL II, in my opinion, will rather suit financial experts wishing to build trading programs (or trading advisors, in the MetaQuotes terminology) of their own.
2.2. Omega Research-based Solutions
In the New World, the vast majority of companies use the Omega Research platform developed by TradeStation Securities, Inc. This platform has long ago proven its worth at the worldwide market, and to date experts consider it to be the best system for technical analysis. The provided IDE called Omega Research PowerEditor is intended to create control programs in EasyLanguage (EL).
The language's major advantage that strikes the eye is the easiness (hence is the name) of placing opening and closing orders. The corresponding program instructions can be written such as if we were formulating an order to our broker in the plain human language. In MQL4, for example, placing an order to open a position would involve specifying about a dozen of various parameters. In EasyLanguage, the same can be expressed in a short statement using a few words. Working with technical indicators is about that simple, too. But don't fall under an illusion: when creating these simple commands, language developers sacrificed the functionality and limited the possible ways of using a particular function, therefore effectively depriving the IDE users of the opportunity to accurately implement their own algorithms.
TradeStation decided not to create extensive libraries of built-in trading and utility functions but to limit to only an essential set. As the platform advanced, the number of functions written by both in-house and third-party developers grew, and TradeStation simply included them as user-defined functions into the repository of its scripts. As a result, the functionality offered to users is not in the least scarcer than that of MetaQuotes product.
PowerEditor provides a built-in dictionary that lets user search and get help on the available functions. Another handy tool worth mentioning is the strategy builder. Using the strategy builder, the user can easily create a basic algorithm for his or her trading program, and then modify and adjust it as necessary.
EasyLanguage is an old-timer and pioneer in the field of creating automated trading systems for the stock market. It was the basis for the development of MQL II. EasyLanguage will be a good choice for programmers, but still a better one for financial experts more oriented at analyzing the market than trading.
2.3. ProTrader-based Solutions
Professional financial experts can choose the ProTrader2 or ProTraderFX platform as their working tool, depending on the type of the financial market-stock or Forex, respectively. The two platforms are developed and supported by PFSoft LLC. While featuring the specially developed ProTrader Language (PTL), the provided IDE named PTL Builder offers also the opportunity to create scripts in MQLII, MQL4 and EasyLanguage. For this, the text of the program is translated to a language-independent code. Therefore, at runtime it does not matter in which language the script was written. This technology does not only enable creating new scripts, but makes it possible to use freely the entire accumulated collection of scripts that many experienced traders possess.
The main idea put into the new scripting language was to ensure maximum reliability and predictability of the scripts being run. The PTL language is built so as to minimize the possibility of making a mistake in the text of a user's script-the potentially dangerous points will be detected even before the script is tested or launched.
Regardless of the programming language chosen, the platform works with verified managed code while running the script. This Microsoft-developed technology enables proper handling of errors that cannot be detected before the script is run. This means the program will not fail and will not perform any unwanted operations that might be due to critical errors or damage caused by another program, for which the account holder would eventually have to pay.
The PTL Builder IDE will serve well both financial experts and programmers thanks to its support of different programming languages and provided tools such as tester and debugger.
2.4. Solution Comparison
The above IDEs have their specific feature sets. The table below provides a summary comparison of the capabilities offered by each.
3. Approaches for Creating Automated Trading Systems and Recommendations for Using Them
It hardly needs mentioning that choosing an information and trading platform should be taken with all seriousness. For those who plan to use an automated trading system in their business, below are some points I would recommend considering, based on my personal experience.
3.1. Choosing a Working Environment
First of all, define the type of tasks the automated trading system is to perform. These could be:
Actual trading: opening and closing positions in selected instrument(s).
Secondary support-type functions. These could include placing protective orders, creating and sending out reports of notifications.
Analyzing the market with different technical analysis tools using your own algorithm.
Now, after you have studied user comments on the Internet and perhaps consulted your broker, proceed to getting the feel of the products offered. I strongly encourage you not to just have a cursory look, but to test the system for a day of two, thankfully, most of the large companies will let you sign up for a demo account for testing. Pay attention to both the convenience of the IDE and the tools that go with it, and to reliability and security of the control programs created with the IDE.
3.2. Creating a Control Program
If you are planning to create your own scripts, take the time to study the documentation for the programming language and the IDE. Naturally, for an automated trading system to be expertly organized, the scripts should be written by qualified professionals in the field of programming and finance. In case you wish to use one of the classic programs, remember that most of them are of trial, demonstration nature. They are good for testing the automated trading system or to be used as a basis for your own programs, but as self-sustaining, ready-to-use solutions they are of little avail.
If you decide to use programs written by third-party developers, keep in mind that good solutions will have to be paid for. The cost of one innovative strategy varies between $300 and $500, but the price for fine-tuned strategies that use advanced mathematical and economic techniques and especially for winners and runners-up of automated trading championships may exceed $1,000.
3.3. Testing Scripts
When using an automated trading system, always test your scripts. The procedure can be as follows:
1. Test the program in a script tester (if such facility is available in your IDE) several times, varying the chart period, the instrument being traded, and the program settings. Try to model the conditions close to the actual state of the market.
2. Test the script in a demo account (if such an opportunity is available). At this stage, it is important to let the program run for a sufficiently long time (it is defined by the period of the chart). Do not stop the test if the program has at once produced a big gain or a big loss. The usefulness of the script can only be estimated after it has worked for a significant amount of time.
3. Run the script in the live account. At this stage, it is not advisable to interfere with the script-for example, close the positions it has opened or modify their settings-or you can upset the internal logic of the program.
3.4. How Not to Fall Prey to Tricks When Choosing a Script
Remember that there are no absolutely perfect advisers. So, do not let them sell you the Brooklyn Bridge-if you had a system that brings in fabulous profits, would you sell it? There is only one advice-a rigorous comprehensive testing will help you get the right impression about the script offered.
Usually, script vendors describe their products with the results of their own testing. In most cases, however, such results are very slanted. Remember that testing should always be performed on several histories, or you can simply adjust to one history fragment and show sky-high results. Based on the NFL theorem, it is fair to say that it is impossible to create a script that would the best of all those existing, in all instruments.
Some professional programmers use sophisticated mathematical tools to endow their programs with artificial intelligence-neural networks, forecasting and evolutionary algorithms are no longer surprising. I would not recommend overestimating such systems-complex forecasting algorithms are very sensitive to errors and parameter settings, while simple schemes are not of much help to the advisor when it comes to generating trade signals, and can only be used to raise the price of the script.
4. Conclusion
In this article, I neither discuss any programming rules for creating the advisors, nor the specifics of writing scripts in a particular language. On these subjects, there are whole books written as well as a number of articles. My aim was to present several points which I think to be quite important but which have not been sufficiently covered in existing publications.
So, are automated trading systems your ally or enemy? When used carefully and without hasty judgments, an automated trading system can facilitate the financial expert's work and bring in certain profits. But when used incorrectly, incompletely tested, or having settings changed frequently, the automated trading system can lose the money you entrust to it.
Remember that an automated trading system is not going to do your job for you without any effort on your part. Use it to solve your existing problems and not add new ones.
5. References
1. MetaQuotes — developer of MetaTrader, MQL2 and MQL4
2. TradeStation — developers of TradeStation and EasyLanguage
3. PFSoft — developers of ProTraderFX, ProTrader2 and ProTraderLanguage
by Nikita Laukhin
Automated Trading and Scripts Analyst of PFSoft Company.
5 EMAs FOREX SYSTEM, Exponential Moving Averages Full Potential
Among one of the important concepts a new forex trader should know is what a Moving Average means, how it's calculated and what its use as a trading indicator is.
Moving Average is defined as a technical indicator that shows the average value of a particular currency pair over a previously determined amount of time. This means, for example, that prices are averaged over 20 or 50 days, or 10 and 50 min depending on the time frame you are using at the moment of your trading activity.
As an averaged quantity, MA's can bee seen as a smoothed representation of the current market activity and an indicator of the major trend influencing the market behavior.
The basic mechanics of how Moving Averages can tell you where the forex market is moving (up or down), at the moment of your analysis is by considering two different time frame Moving Averages and plotting them on the forex chart. It is very important that one of these MA is over a shorter time period than the other one; let's say one will be over a 15 days period and the other over a 50 days period. Most trading station software available by a number of brokers will let you do this plotting and much more.
Recently there has been the realese of a new forex trading system called "The 5 EMAs FOREX SYSTEM". This system will allow you to identify both entry and exit points with incredible accuracy. He even claims you can convert $1000 into $1000 000 in just 24 months. He may be exaggerating a bit on this, but his plan of action and use of moving averages is quite outstanding and accurate.
Depending upon the exit strategy selected, the system generates monthly returns of between 30% and 55%. Which is more tha enough to make a living trading the forex markets with the 5 EMAs Forex System.
by Adrian Pablo
http://www.1-forex.com/5EMA-Forex-Trading
Moving Average is defined as a technical indicator that shows the average value of a particular currency pair over a previously determined amount of time. This means, for example, that prices are averaged over 20 or 50 days, or 10 and 50 min depending on the time frame you are using at the moment of your trading activity.
As an averaged quantity, MA's can bee seen as a smoothed representation of the current market activity and an indicator of the major trend influencing the market behavior.
The basic mechanics of how Moving Averages can tell you where the forex market is moving (up or down), at the moment of your analysis is by considering two different time frame Moving Averages and plotting them on the forex chart. It is very important that one of these MA is over a shorter time period than the other one; let's say one will be over a 15 days period and the other over a 50 days period. Most trading station software available by a number of brokers will let you do this plotting and much more.
Recently there has been the realese of a new forex trading system called "The 5 EMAs FOREX SYSTEM". This system will allow you to identify both entry and exit points with incredible accuracy. He even claims you can convert $1000 into $1000 000 in just 24 months. He may be exaggerating a bit on this, but his plan of action and use of moving averages is quite outstanding and accurate.
Depending upon the exit strategy selected, the system generates monthly returns of between 30% and 55%. Which is more tha enough to make a living trading the forex markets with the 5 EMAs Forex System.
by Adrian Pablo
http://www.1-forex.com/5EMA-Forex-Trading
Forex Trading: The Perfect Forex Trading System
Trading the Forex market has became very popular in the last few years. But how difficult is it to achieve success in the Forex trading arena? Or let me rephrase this question, how many traders achieve consistent profitable results trading the Forex market? Unfortunately very few, only 5% of traders achieve this goal. One of the main reasons of this is because Forex traders focus in the wrong information to make their trading decisions and totally forget about the most important factor: Price behavior.
Most Forex trading systems are made off technical indicators (a moving average (MA) crossover, overbought/oversold conditions in an oscillator, etc.) But what are technical indicators? They are just a series of data points plotted in a chart; these points are derived from a mathematical formula applied to the price of any given currency pair. In other words, it is a chart of price plotted in a different way that helps us see other aspects of price.
There is an important implication on this definition of technical indicators. The fact that the readings obtained from them are based on price action. Take for instance a long MA crossover signal, the price has gone up enough to make the short period MA crossover the long period MA generating a long signal. Most traders see it as "the MA crossover made the price go up," but it happened the other way around, the MA crossover signal occurred because the price went up. Where I'm trying to get here is that at the end, price behavior dictates how an indicator will act, and this should be taken into consideration on any trading decision made.
Trading decisions based on technical indicators without taking price action into consideration will give us less accurate results. For example, again a long signal generated by a MA crossover as the market approaches an important resistance level. If the price suddenly starts to bounce back off that important level there is no point on taking this signal, price action is telling us the market doesn't want to go up. Most of the time, under this circumstances, the market will continue to fall down, disregarding the MA crossover.
Don't get me wrong here, technical indicators are a very important aspect of trading. They help us see certain conditions that are otherwise difficult to see by watching pure price action. But when it comes to pull the trigger, price action incorporation into our Forex trading system will definitely put the odds in our favor, it will generate higher probability trades.
So, how to create a perfect Forex trading system?
First of all, you need to make sure your trading system fits your trading personality; otherwise you will find it hard to follow it. Every trader has different needs and goals, thus there is no system that perfectly fits all traders. You need to make your own research on various trading styles and technical indicators until you find a concept that perfectly works for you. Make sure you know the nature of whatever technical indicator used.
Secondly, incorporate price action into your system. So you only take long signals if the price behavior tells you the market wants to go up, and short signals if the market gives you indication that it will go down.
Third, and most importantly, you need to have the discipline to follow your Forex trading system rigorously. Try it first on a demo account, then move on to a small account and finally when feeling comfortably and being consistent profitable apply your system in a regular account.
by Raul Lopez
www.straightforex.com
Most Forex trading systems are made off technical indicators (a moving average (MA) crossover, overbought/oversold conditions in an oscillator, etc.) But what are technical indicators? They are just a series of data points plotted in a chart; these points are derived from a mathematical formula applied to the price of any given currency pair. In other words, it is a chart of price plotted in a different way that helps us see other aspects of price.
There is an important implication on this definition of technical indicators. The fact that the readings obtained from them are based on price action. Take for instance a long MA crossover signal, the price has gone up enough to make the short period MA crossover the long period MA generating a long signal. Most traders see it as "the MA crossover made the price go up," but it happened the other way around, the MA crossover signal occurred because the price went up. Where I'm trying to get here is that at the end, price behavior dictates how an indicator will act, and this should be taken into consideration on any trading decision made.
Trading decisions based on technical indicators without taking price action into consideration will give us less accurate results. For example, again a long signal generated by a MA crossover as the market approaches an important resistance level. If the price suddenly starts to bounce back off that important level there is no point on taking this signal, price action is telling us the market doesn't want to go up. Most of the time, under this circumstances, the market will continue to fall down, disregarding the MA crossover.
Don't get me wrong here, technical indicators are a very important aspect of trading. They help us see certain conditions that are otherwise difficult to see by watching pure price action. But when it comes to pull the trigger, price action incorporation into our Forex trading system will definitely put the odds in our favor, it will generate higher probability trades.
So, how to create a perfect Forex trading system?
First of all, you need to make sure your trading system fits your trading personality; otherwise you will find it hard to follow it. Every trader has different needs and goals, thus there is no system that perfectly fits all traders. You need to make your own research on various trading styles and technical indicators until you find a concept that perfectly works for you. Make sure you know the nature of whatever technical indicator used.
Secondly, incorporate price action into your system. So you only take long signals if the price behavior tells you the market wants to go up, and short signals if the market gives you indication that it will go down.
Third, and most importantly, you need to have the discipline to follow your Forex trading system rigorously. Try it first on a demo account, then move on to a small account and finally when feeling comfortably and being consistent profitable apply your system in a regular account.
by Raul Lopez
www.straightforex.com
How To Loose Everything — The Worst Forex Trading Strategy Ever That You Might Be Using
You may be wondering, `Why would David Jenyns write about the worst Forex trading strategy around?`
There are a couple of reasons:
First, to warn you about the worst Forex trading strategy, because you really don`t want to end up using this system.
Second, because once you know the worst possible Forex trading strategy, the one that is designed to maximize your losses over the long run, then you can reverse it to craft a strategy which does the exact opposite.
With what you learn from the worst Forex trading strategy, you will be able to create a system that will produce some tremendous long-term gains. The worst Forex trading strategy I`m referring to, which is simply the worst Forex trading strategy I have ever encountered, is known as averaging down. This horrifying Forex trading strategy is the process of buying more shares that you had previously acquired, as the price drops.
Traders often purchase shares this way in an effort to reduce their initial entry price.
Only bad investors average down by buying shares of a sinking assests to decrease their overall average price per share. This Forex trading strategy is hardly ever effective, and is often like throwing good money after bad. It also magnifies a trader`s loss if the share keeps dropping. Remember, just because a share is cheap now that doesn`t mean it`s not going to get any cheaper. However, let`s examine how this devastating Forex trading strategy works. Say you bought one thousand shares at $40.
The novice investor may not have a stop loss in place, and the share price falls to $30 dollars. Here comes the stupidity of this Forex trading strategy — to average down the novice trader might by another thousand shares at $30 to lower the average cost per share that he`d already purchased. So, his average cost per share would now be $35.
Unfortunately, the share price may fall even further, and the novice trader will again buy more shares to reduce the average cost per share. They end up buying more and more into a share that`s losing their money.
Now, imagine this Forex trading strategy being applied to a portfolio of assets. In the end, all the capital will automatically be allocated to the worse performing assets in the portfolio while the best performing assets are sold off. The result is, at best, a disastrous underperformance versus the market.
If a trader uses an averaging down system and uses margins, their losses will be magnified even further. The biggest problem with this Forex trading strategy is that a trader`s gains are cut short, and the losers are left to run. My advice is — never average down. The process of buying a share, watching it fall, and then throwing more money at it in the hopes that you`ll either get back to break even or make a bigger killing is one of the most misguided pieces of advice on Wall Street. Never be faced with a situation where you`ll ask yourself, Should I risk even more than I originally intended in a desperate attempt to lower my cost and save my butt?`
Instead, design a simple, robust system with good money management rules. I can practically guarantee the results will be better than averaging down.
by David Jenyns
http://www.ultimate-trading-systems.com/forex.htm
There are a couple of reasons:
First, to warn you about the worst Forex trading strategy, because you really don`t want to end up using this system.
Second, because once you know the worst possible Forex trading strategy, the one that is designed to maximize your losses over the long run, then you can reverse it to craft a strategy which does the exact opposite.
With what you learn from the worst Forex trading strategy, you will be able to create a system that will produce some tremendous long-term gains. The worst Forex trading strategy I`m referring to, which is simply the worst Forex trading strategy I have ever encountered, is known as averaging down. This horrifying Forex trading strategy is the process of buying more shares that you had previously acquired, as the price drops.
Traders often purchase shares this way in an effort to reduce their initial entry price.
Only bad investors average down by buying shares of a sinking assests to decrease their overall average price per share. This Forex trading strategy is hardly ever effective, and is often like throwing good money after bad. It also magnifies a trader`s loss if the share keeps dropping. Remember, just because a share is cheap now that doesn`t mean it`s not going to get any cheaper. However, let`s examine how this devastating Forex trading strategy works. Say you bought one thousand shares at $40.
The novice investor may not have a stop loss in place, and the share price falls to $30 dollars. Here comes the stupidity of this Forex trading strategy — to average down the novice trader might by another thousand shares at $30 to lower the average cost per share that he`d already purchased. So, his average cost per share would now be $35.
Unfortunately, the share price may fall even further, and the novice trader will again buy more shares to reduce the average cost per share. They end up buying more and more into a share that`s losing their money.
Now, imagine this Forex trading strategy being applied to a portfolio of assets. In the end, all the capital will automatically be allocated to the worse performing assets in the portfolio while the best performing assets are sold off. The result is, at best, a disastrous underperformance versus the market.
If a trader uses an averaging down system and uses margins, their losses will be magnified even further. The biggest problem with this Forex trading strategy is that a trader`s gains are cut short, and the losers are left to run. My advice is — never average down. The process of buying a share, watching it fall, and then throwing more money at it in the hopes that you`ll either get back to break even or make a bigger killing is one of the most misguided pieces of advice on Wall Street. Never be faced with a situation where you`ll ask yourself, Should I risk even more than I originally intended in a desperate attempt to lower my cost and save my butt?`
Instead, design a simple, robust system with good money management rules. I can practically guarantee the results will be better than averaging down.
by David Jenyns
http://www.ultimate-trading-systems.com/forex.htm
Knowing the Ins and Outs of Chandelier Exit
Have you ever heard of a stop placement strategy that trails stop based on previous 'high' points? It is called Chandelier exit as it hangs down from the high point or the ceiling of our trade, just as a chandelier hangs from a room ceiling. The distance, which is usually calculated from the high point to the trailing stop; could also be calculated in dollars or in contract based points. However, the value of this trailing stop moves upward very promptly as higher highs is reached.
The Chandelier Exit, which has a trailing stop from either the highest high of the trade or the highest close of the trade, is best measured in units of Average True Range (ATR). One of the many factors leading to use ATR for measuring the distance from the high to our stop is that, it is pertinent across markets and is adaptive to changes in unpredictability.
The essence of this calculative measure is that, even on expansion and contraction of trading ranges, our stop will automatically adjust and move to the apt level, thereby, constantly staying in tune with changing market conditions. Chandelier Exit is one of the most tried exit methodology used across a varied portfolio of futures markets to generate profitable test results.
It is imperative that the changes in unpredictability can curtail or stretch the distance to the actual stop, since the highs used to hang the Chandelier move only upward. However, in order to witness less fluctuation in the stop distance, you can use a longer moving average to calculate Average True Range. In other ways, shorter moving average is required, in case you want the stop placement to be more adaptive to fluctuating market conditions.
When short averages for the ATR is used; brief periods of small ranges can bring the stops too close, abnormally resulting in premature exit. To avoid this, you can have a short and highly adaptive ATR while calculating a short average and a longer average and using the average that produces the widest stop.
Although Chandelier Exit differs from Channel Exit (which trails a stop based on previous 'low' points), the combination of both, where the trade is initialized by the trailing Channel Exit and then adding the Chandelier Exit, after the price has moved away from the entrance point, will help in making the open trade lucrative. Here the Channel Exit is fastened at a low point and does not move up as new profits are accomplished. At the same time, it is necessary to have the Chandelier Exit at the right position so that the exits are never too far away from the high point of the trade.
The fundamentals behind combining the exit techniques, Channel and Chandelier exit is that, while Channel Exit as a suitable stop that very steadily rises at the commencement of the trade, switching over to Chandelier Exit is necessary to ensure better exit that protects more of our profit. This feature makes Chandelier Exit one of the most sought after rational exits from the profitable trades.
The Chandelier Exit, which has a trailing stop from either the highest high of the trade or the highest close of the trade, is best measured in units of Average True Range (ATR). One of the many factors leading to use ATR for measuring the distance from the high to our stop is that, it is pertinent across markets and is adaptive to changes in unpredictability.
The essence of this calculative measure is that, even on expansion and contraction of trading ranges, our stop will automatically adjust and move to the apt level, thereby, constantly staying in tune with changing market conditions. Chandelier Exit is one of the most tried exit methodology used across a varied portfolio of futures markets to generate profitable test results.
It is imperative that the changes in unpredictability can curtail or stretch the distance to the actual stop, since the highs used to hang the Chandelier move only upward. However, in order to witness less fluctuation in the stop distance, you can use a longer moving average to calculate Average True Range. In other ways, shorter moving average is required, in case you want the stop placement to be more adaptive to fluctuating market conditions.
When short averages for the ATR is used; brief periods of small ranges can bring the stops too close, abnormally resulting in premature exit. To avoid this, you can have a short and highly adaptive ATR while calculating a short average and a longer average and using the average that produces the widest stop.
Although Chandelier Exit differs from Channel Exit (which trails a stop based on previous 'low' points), the combination of both, where the trade is initialized by the trailing Channel Exit and then adding the Chandelier Exit, after the price has moved away from the entrance point, will help in making the open trade lucrative. Here the Channel Exit is fastened at a low point and does not move up as new profits are accomplished. At the same time, it is necessary to have the Chandelier Exit at the right position so that the exits are never too far away from the high point of the trade.
The fundamentals behind combining the exit techniques, Channel and Chandelier exit is that, while Channel Exit as a suitable stop that very steadily rises at the commencement of the trade, switching over to Chandelier Exit is necessary to ensure better exit that protects more of our profit. This feature makes Chandelier Exit one of the most sought after rational exits from the profitable trades.
Currency Trading Training - 7 Favorite Tips
Currency trading training is not over when a trader finally sees the equity increasing in their account.
The Forex market is a very demanding environment and for a trader to maintain a success level, constant currency trading training is necessary.
The following 7 favorite tips can be used as timely reminders and need to be read and absorbed on a regular basis:
#1 - Take Responsibility
"The buck stops here." Don't blame the markets, or a host of other factors for a losing trade. You entered it for whatever reasons you had at the time. Take responsibility for it.
#2 - Use Each Losing Trade As A Stepping Stone
You lost a trade? Good. It will help you focus on a potential problem in your trading method. If after careful analysis you are satisfied you worked according to your plan, fine. Move on.
#3 - Never Become Impatient With The Market
New traders in the early stages of their currency trading training can be eaten alive by the market. During periods of consolidation with little liquidity the anxious impatient trader will force trading opportunities where there none.
Learn to accept the fact that around 70% of the time price will be in a consolidation channel.
#4 - Focus Daily On Improving Your Trading Skills
Currency trading training is an ongoing process. Day by day, step by step the trader improves. So rather than be preoccupied with profits and losses, concentrate on developing the skills. Your account will start to reflect your focus in time.
#5 - Be Pleased With Well Executed Trades Whatever The Outcome
Is this possible? Yes. You can feel well pleased even with a losing trade if you stuck to your methodology and executed the trade well. It is dangerous to feel good about a winning trade when you went against your trading method to achieve it. Your elation is likely to be short lived. Learn to execute the plan!
#6 - If In Doubt Stay Out
The feeling of regret can drain a person mentally and emotionally from entering a poorly considered trade. Once the trigger has been pulled and the trade starts going wrong, the agony of watching it inch towards your stop should renew in the trader the determination to stay out when in doubt!
#7 - Always Have A Good Reason
Currency trading training involves careful analysis of reasons for entering a trade. Just because price is high is not a reason to go short or long if price is low. Price will do what price wants to do so rather than trading from gut reaction, e.g. "Price can't go any higher (or lower)" learn to detach emotions and use pure technical analysis to establish a number of reasons why you should take a trade.
As currency trading training is a long term commitment, skills and disciplines learned can sometimes be forgotten as bad habits creep in.
It is necessary to constantly renew the thinking processes by repeating over and over the habits of successful traders.
These 7 favorite tips will keep the newer trader out of a lot of trouble!
The Forex market is a very demanding environment and for a trader to maintain a success level, constant currency trading training is necessary.
The following 7 favorite tips can be used as timely reminders and need to be read and absorbed on a regular basis:
#1 - Take Responsibility
"The buck stops here." Don't blame the markets, or a host of other factors for a losing trade. You entered it for whatever reasons you had at the time. Take responsibility for it.
#2 - Use Each Losing Trade As A Stepping Stone
You lost a trade? Good. It will help you focus on a potential problem in your trading method. If after careful analysis you are satisfied you worked according to your plan, fine. Move on.
#3 - Never Become Impatient With The Market
New traders in the early stages of their currency trading training can be eaten alive by the market. During periods of consolidation with little liquidity the anxious impatient trader will force trading opportunities where there none.
Learn to accept the fact that around 70% of the time price will be in a consolidation channel.
#4 - Focus Daily On Improving Your Trading Skills
Currency trading training is an ongoing process. Day by day, step by step the trader improves. So rather than be preoccupied with profits and losses, concentrate on developing the skills. Your account will start to reflect your focus in time.
#5 - Be Pleased With Well Executed Trades Whatever The Outcome
Is this possible? Yes. You can feel well pleased even with a losing trade if you stuck to your methodology and executed the trade well. It is dangerous to feel good about a winning trade when you went against your trading method to achieve it. Your elation is likely to be short lived. Learn to execute the plan!
#6 - If In Doubt Stay Out
The feeling of regret can drain a person mentally and emotionally from entering a poorly considered trade. Once the trigger has been pulled and the trade starts going wrong, the agony of watching it inch towards your stop should renew in the trader the determination to stay out when in doubt!
#7 - Always Have A Good Reason
Currency trading training involves careful analysis of reasons for entering a trade. Just because price is high is not a reason to go short or long if price is low. Price will do what price wants to do so rather than trading from gut reaction, e.g. "Price can't go any higher (or lower)" learn to detach emotions and use pure technical analysis to establish a number of reasons why you should take a trade.
As currency trading training is a long term commitment, skills and disciplines learned can sometimes be forgotten as bad habits creep in.
It is necessary to constantly renew the thinking processes by repeating over and over the habits of successful traders.
These 7 favorite tips will keep the newer trader out of a lot of trouble!
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