Due to The escalating euro zone disaster and unsure global growth outlook, the month of May 2012 saw tremendous volatility in our forex markets. These recent market moves reminded me so much of 2008 September/October Lehman moves, however that was still something much more catastrophic and intense, when I saw GBP/USD collapsing from 2.11 to 1.35 over a period of a few months and all the yen pairs were almost halved of their prices in a matter of a few months. I saw 2008 brought an end to many trading careers, and something similar happening recently where a few of my great friends have “lost faith” in the markets as well as their own abilities to make money from here.
I am 95% a technical trader, but I’ll confess that there are “certain” times when even the “proven technicals” do not work as well as it should, but that does not mean your trading system has failed forever. Occasionally the sentiment takes over everything, like we’ve seen with EUR/USD and other majors recently. Many traders can make it really big in this market, but due to a lack of a proper approach, they miserably fail and end up either blaming the market, or the easy soft target is mostly the broker they are dealing with. The most common problem I see with many traders is “an attempt to pick bottoms” in a strong bear market. Their theory is “the price is too low, and it has to get back up”. What exactly is “too low”? How many pips fall is considered as too low? GBP/JPY fell from 251 and came to 180, and then 118 in 2008. After a fall of about 7000 pips, surely 180 was “too low”, wasn’t it? I’ve a few suggestions to tackle the market which is moving 1 way
Stop clinging on to Eur/Usd. A lot of traders are obsessed with Eur/Usd. Broaden your horizons and give other pairs a try too. When the sentiment is horrible for EUR and its free falling, why do you only want to stick to it, and most likely burn yourself? You’ll be surprised that while all the majors have been free falling, the crosses like Eur/Gbp (see twitter for the lovely 100 pips swing)
Aud/Cad, Eur/Aud have given some gorgeous trading opportunities. The same technical analysis which wasn’t working for EUR/USD, worked absolutely brilliantly for some crosses. When the market is settled, you can always go back to the more liquid majors. The idea is to make money, and not remain obsessed with one single pair. Understand the sentiment, and react quickly. Decision making is the key here.
The Game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, or for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.
- Jesse Livermore profound word!
Learn patience. I cannot emphasize enough the importance of being patient. I don't care how you do it, but if you want to be a successful trader, you don’t have a choice. Trading should not be time based; instead it should be based on a technical set up that justifies all your rules. It is not about how fast you jump in the moving train, its about who can wait quietly until the mud settles.
Move to larger time frames, few times in a month. I have always believed that charts know everything, and this is what our subscribers got to know earlier in April 2012.
And this is how it’s doing now. A few times, the fibs on larger time frames also give you the “possible retrace points”, so if you are really attempting to pick a bottom, at least it should make some sense.
If you have a desire to make it really big, and that too all on your own, Avoid “general trading chat rooms” like a plague. That’s the best place to confuse yourself where 50% will shout buy buy buy, and the other will say sell sell sell, and your own analysis would be in the gutter. You’ll then pick your favorite trader from that chat room, and follow his suggestion, and if you lose especially when your own trading idea was the opposite of your favorite trader, you’ll be even more gutted. Your eyes should be on your charts, and with full attentiveness.
Have a trading goal. Just because the market is so volatile, does not mean you’ve to keep trading every minute. If your trading goal is to make 40 pips a day and you’re done and dog-tired, just move away and engage in something that you like doing in general life, or give time to your family. However, if those 40 pips have come by working just 1-2 hours, and you’ve heaps of time and energy left for that trading day, you can carry on hunting for trading opportunities, but keep in mind; your trades should “always have a strong technical reason”.
Stop trading the news for “quick bucks” or “quick losses”. Pros react to the reaction of the print, they don't predict the print. With our skills and experience, we made over a thousand pips in May, but we were tested to the limits by a very fast and uncertain market. It is important that one should always trade smart, and don’t be trigger happy during a volatile market. Let the trades come to you. Also, trade the trend, but don’t blindly trade the trend every day. Retraces are a part of the market, and they happen sooner or later. If you follow the trend thoughtlessly,
Everything comes gradually and at its appointed hour. Trying to understand is like straining through muddy water. Be still and allow the mud to settle. Our compensation is not determined by how many trades we take, or how long we spend in front of the computer screen. We are paid for our discipline and timely decision making, So remember, learn to be patient, and always have a positive attitude and success will follow you gradually.
Patience is not the ability to wait but the ability to keep a good attitude while waiting.
-Joyce Meyer
Patience is not the ability to wait but the ability to keep a good attitude while waiting.
-Joyce Meyer
No comments:
Post a Comment