Wednesday, June 4, 2008

Forex Basics

Foreign Exchange
Foreign exchange (Forex or FX) is the largest financial market in the world with a daily turnover of over $2.0 trillion.

What is traded on the Foreign Exchange?

The answer is money. Forex trading is the simultaneous buying of one currency and selling of another. Currencies are traded through a broker or dealer and are traded in pairs; for example the Euro dollar and the US dollar (EUR/USD) or the British pound and the Japanese Yen (GBP/JPY).


This kind of trading is often very confusing to people because they are not buying anything physical. Think of buying a currency as buying a share in a particular country. When you buy, say, Japanese Yen, you are in effect buying a share in the Japanese economy, as the price of the currency is a direct reflection of what the market thinks about the current and future health of the country's economy.

Unlike other financial markets, the foreign exchange market has no physical location and no central exchange. The Forex market operates 24 hours a day through an electronic network of banks, corporations and individual traders. Forex trading begins every day in Sydney, then moves to Tokyo, followed by London and then New York. The major market makers, or dealers, consist of the commercial and investment banks, the exchange traded futures, and registered futures commission merchants. Our dealing desk is open 24-hours a day from Sunday 17:00 EST to Friday 17:00 EST.

Foreign Exchange Prices
Foreign exchange markets and prices are mainly influenced by international trade flows and investment flows. The FX markets are also influenced, but to a lesser extent, by the same factors that influence the equity and bond markets: economic and political conditions especially interest rates, inflation, and political instability. Those factors usually have only a short-term impact, which makes Forex attractive as it offers some of the diversification necessary to protect against adverse movements in the equity and bond markets.

Currencies are usually quoted to four decimal places, such as the Euro/US Dollar trading at 1.2400/1.2403, with the last decimal place referred to as a point or "pip". A pip for most currencies is 0.0001 of an exchange rate; the one exception is the USD/JPY quote in which each pip is equal to 0.01.

Quoting Conventions

Currencies are quoted in pairs, such as EUR/USD or USD/JPY. The first listed currency is known as the base currency, while the second is called the counter or quote currency. The base currency is the "basis" for the buy or the sell. For example, if you BUY EUR/USD you have bought euros (simultaneously sold dollars). You would do so in expectation that the euro will appreciate (go up) relative to the US dollar.

EUR/USD
In this example euro is the base currency and thus the "basis" for the buy/sell.

If you believe that the US economy will continue to weaken and this will hurt the US dollar, you would execute a BUY EUR/USD order. By doing so you have bought euros in the expectation that they will appreciate versus the US dollar. If you believe that the US economy is strong and the euro will weaken against the US dollar you would execute a SELL EUR/USD order. By doing so you have sold euros in the expectation that they will depreciate versus the US dollar.

USD/JPY
In this example the US dollar is the base currency and thus the "basis" for the buy/sell.

If you think that the Japanese government is going to weaken the yen in order to help its export industry, you would execute a BUY USD/JPY order. By doing so you have bought U.S dollars in the expectation that they will appreciate versus the Japanese yen. If you believe that Japanese investors are pulling money out of U.S. financial markets and repatriating funds back to Japan, and this will hurt the US dollar, you would execute a SELL USD/JPY order. By doing so you have sold U.S dollars in the expectation that they will depreciate against the Japanese yen.

Bid/Ask Spread

All Forex quotes include a two-way price, the bid and ask. The bid is always lower than the ask price.
The bid is the price in which the dealer is willing to buy the base currency in exchange for the quote currency. This means the bid is the price in which you the trader will sell.
The ask is the price at which the dealer will sell the base currency in exchange for the quote currency. This means the ask is the price in which you the trader will buy.
The difference between the bid and the ask price is popularly know as the Spread.

Analysis of Foreign Exchange Markets
Foreign exchange traders base their decisions on either technical analysis and fundamental analysis.
Technical traders use charts, trend lines, support and resistance levels, mathematical models and other means to identify opportunities and drive trading decisions.
Fundamental traders identify trading opportunities by analyzing economic information.

24-Hour Access to the World

When you choose to trade currencies, you’re choosing greater freedom in your trading. With the ability to trade forex 24 hours a day, 5.5 days a week with extreme liquidity, you participate when you want to, not when the market dictates.

The market is able to stay open 24 hours a day, 5.5 days a week, because trading begins with the open in Australia, and flows through the open and close of the major financial trading centers in Asia, Europe, the United States and back again to Australia.

The daily foreign currency trading volume is determined by which markets are open at any point in time. When international market open times overlap, such as when the U.S. and British market are open simultaneously, greater trading volume is seen, resulting in peak trading.

Forex Fundamental Analysis

A fundamental trading strategy consists of strategic assessments in which a certain currency is traded based on virtually any criteria excluding the price action. These criteria include, but are not limited to, the economic condition that the country the currency represents, monetary policy, and other elements that are fundamental to economies.

The focus of fundamental analysis lies on the economic, social and political forces that drive supply and demand. There is no single set of beliefs that guide fundamental analysis, yet most fundamental analysts look at various macroeconomic indicators such as economic growth rates, interest rates, inflation, and unemployment. Several theories prevail as to how currencies should be valued.


Alone, fundamental analysis can be stressful when dealing with commodities, currencies and other "margined" products. The reason for this is that often fundamental analysis does not provide specific entry and exit points, and therefore it can be difficult for risk to be controlled when utilizing leverage techniques.

Currency prices are a reflection of the balance between supply and demand for currencies. Interest rates and the overall strength of the economy are the two primary factors that affect supply and demand. Economic indicators (for example, GDP, foreign investment and the trade balance) reflect the overall health of an economy. Therefore, they are responsible for the underlying changes in supply and demand for that currency. A tremendous amount of data is released at regular intervals, and some of this data is significant. Data that is related to interest rates and international trade is analyzed very closely.

Interest Rates
If there is an uncertainty in the market in terms of interest rates, then any developments regarding interest rates can have a direct affect on the currency markets. Generally, when a country raises its interest rates, the country's currency will strengthen in relation to other currencies as assets are shifted to gain a higher return. Interest rates hikes, however, are usually not good news for stock markets. This is due to the fact that many investors will withdraw money from a country's stock market when there is a hike of interest rates, causing the country's currency to weaken. Knowing which effect prevails can be tricky, but usually there is an agreement among the field as to what the interest rate move will do. PPI, CPI, and GDP have proven to be the indicators with the biggest impact. The timing of interest rate moves is usually known in advance. It is generally known that these moves take place after regular meetings of the BOE, FED, ECB, BOJ, and other central banks.

International Trade
The trade balance portrays the net difference (over a period of time) between the imports and exports of a nation. When imports become more than exports, the trade balance shows a deficit (this is --for the most part-- considered unfavorable). For example, if Euros are sold for other domestic national currencies, such as US Dollars, to pay for imports, the value of the currency will depreciate due to the flow of dollars outside the country. On the other hand, if trade figures show an increase in exports, money will flow into the country and increase the value of the currency. In some ways, however, a deficit in and of itself is not necessarily a bad thing. A deficit is only negative if the deficit is greater than market expectations and therefore will trigger a negative price movement.


Forex Technical Analysis

Probably the most successful and most utilized means of making decisions and analyzing forex and commodities markets is Technical Analysis.

The difference between forex technical and forex fundamental analyses is that forex technical analysis ignores fundamental factors and is applied only to the price action of the market. In that fundamental data can often only provide a long-term forecast of exchange rate movements, forex technical analysis has become the primary tool to successfully analyze and trade shorter-term price movements, as well as to set profit targets and stop loss.


Forex technical analysis primarily consists of a variety of forex technical studies, each of which can be interpreted to predict market direction or to generate buy and sell signals. For a detailed description of these studies and their uses, please use our charting user guide for technical studies.

What to Look For in Technicals?

Find the Trend

One of the first things you'll ever hear in technical analysis is the following motto: "the trend is your friend". Finding the prevailing trend will help you become aware of the overall market direction and offer you better visibility--especially when shorter-term movements tend to clutter the picture. Weekly and monthly charts are most ideally suited for identifying that longer-term trend. Once you have found the overall trend, you could select the trend of the time horizon in which you wish to trade. Thus, you could effectively buy on the dips during rising trends, and sell the rallies during downward trends.

Support & Resistance

Support and resistance levels are points where a chart experiences recurring upward or downward pressure. A support level is usually the low point in any chart pattern (hourly, weekly or annually), whereas a resistance level is the high or the peak point of the pattern. These points are identified as support and resistance when they show a tendency to reappear. It is best to buy/sell near support/resistance levels that are unlikely to be broken.

Once these levels are broken, they tend to become the opposite obstacle. Thus, in a rising market, a resistance level that is broken, could serve as a support for the upward trend, whereas in a falling market; once a support level is broken, it could turn into a resistance.

Lines & Channels

Trend lines are simple, yet helpful tools in confirming the direction of market trends. An upward straight line is drawn by connecting at least two successive lows. Naturally, the second point must be higher than the first. The continuation of the line helps determine the path along which the market will move. An upward trend is a concrete method to identify support lines/levels. Conversely, downward lines are charted by connecting two points or more. The validity of a trading line is partly related to the number of connection points. Yet it's worth mentioning that points must not be too close together.

A channel is defined as the price path drawn by two parallel trend lines. The lines serve as an upward, downward or straight corridor for the price. A familiar property of a channel for a connecting point of a trend line is to lie between the two connecting point of its opposite line.
Averages

If you believe in the "trend-in-your-friend" tenet of technical analysis, moving averages are very helpful. Moving averages tell the average price in a given point of time over a defined period of time. They are called moving because they reflect the latest average, while adhering to the same time measure.

A weakness of moving averages is that they lag the market, so they do not necessarily signal a change in trends. To address this issue, using a shorter period, such as 5 or 10 day moving average, would be more reflective of the recent price action than the 40 or 200-day moving averages.

Alternatively, moving averages may be used by combining two averages of distinct time- frames. Whether using 5 and 20-day MA, or 40 and 200-day MA, buy signals are usually detected when the shorter-term average crosses above the longer-term average. Conversely, sell signals are suggested when the shorter average falls below the longer one.

There are three kind of mathematically distinct moving averages: Simple MA; Linearly Weighted MA; and Exponentially Smoothed. The latter choice is the preferred one because it assigns greater weight for the most recent data, and considers data in the entire life of the instrument.

Risk Management

Risk Warning

Trading foreign currencies is a challenging and potentially profitable opportunity for educated and experienced investors. However, before deciding to participate in the Forex market, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Most importantly, do not invest money you cannot afford to lose.


There is considerable exposure to risk in any foreign exchange transaction. Any transaction involving currencies involves risks including, but not limited to, the potential for changing political and/or economic conditions that may substantially affect the price or liquidity of a currency. Moreover, the leveraged nature of FX trading means that any market movement will have an effect on your deposited funds proportionally equal to the leverage factor. This may work against you as well as for you. The possibility exists that you could sustain a total loss of initial margin funds and be required to deposit additional funds to maintain your position. If you fail to meet any margin call within the time prescribed, your position will be liquidated and you will be responsible for any resulting losses. Investors may lower their exposure to risk by employing risk-reducing strategies such as 'stop-loss' or 'limit' orders.

There are also risks associated with utilizing an internet-based deal execution software application including, but not limited, to the failure of hardware and software and communications difficulties.

Risk Management

The Forex Market is the largest and most liquid financial market in the world. Since macroeconomic forces are one of the main drivers of the value of currencies in the global economy, currencies tend to have the most identifiable trend patterns. Therefore, the Forex market is a very attractive market for active traders, and presumably where they should be the most successful. However, success has been limited mainly for the following reasons:

Many traders come with false expectations of the profit potential, and lack the discipline required for trading. Short term trading is not an amateur's game and is not the way most people will achieve quick riches. Simply because Forex trading may seem exotic or less familiar then traditional markets (i.e. equities, futures, etc.), it does not mean that the rules of finance and simple logic are suspended. One cannot hope to make extraordinary gains without taking extraordinary risks, and that means suffering inconsistent trading performance that often leads to large losses. Trading currencies is not easy, and many traders with years of experience still incur periodic losses. One must realize that trading takes time to master and there are absolutely no short cuts to this process.

The most enticing aspect of trading Forex is the high degree of leverage used. Leverage seems very attractive to those who are expecting to turn small amounts of money into large amounts in a short period of time. However, leverage is a double-edged sword. Just because one lot ($10,000) of currency only requires $100 as a minimum margin deposit, it does not mean that a trader with $1,000 in his account should be easily able to trade 10 lots. One lot is $10,000 and should be treated as a $100,000 investment and not the $1000 put up as margin. Most traders analyze the charts correctly and place sensible trades, yet they tend to over leverage themselves (get in with a position that is too big for their portfolio), and as a consequence, often end up forced to exit a position at the wrong time.

For example, if your account value is $10,000 and you place a trade for 1 lot, you are in effect, leveraging yourself 10 to 1, which is a very significant level of leverage. Most professional money managers will leverage no more then 3 or 4 times. Trading in small increments with protective stops on your positions will allow one the opportunity to be successful in Forex trading.

Utilizing Stop Loss Order
A stop-loss is an order linked to a specific position for the purpose of closing that position and preventing the position from accruing additional losses. A stop-loss order placed on a Buy (or Long) position is a stop-loss order to Sell and close that position. A stop-loss order placed on a Sell (or Short) position is a stop-loss order to Buy and close that position. A stop-loss order remains in effect until the position is liquidated or the client cancels the stop-loss order. As an example, if an investor is Long (Buy) USD at 120.27, they might wish to put in a stop-loss order to Sell at 119.49, which would limit the loss on the position to the difference between the two rates (120.27-119.49) should the dollar depreciate below 119.49. A stop-loss would not be executed and the position would remain open until the market trades at the stop-loss level. Stop-loss orders are an essential tool for controlling your risk in currency trading.

Standard Forex Terms

Base currency: The base currency is the first currency in a currency pair, and the currency that remains constant when determining a currency pair's price. The United States Dollar (USD) and the European Union Euro(EUR) are the dominant base currencies in terms of daily traded volume in the foreign exchange market. The British Pound (GBP), also called sterling or cable, is the third ranking base currency. The USD based pairs are USD/JPY, USD/CHF and USD/CAD; the Euro based pairs are EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, and EUR/CHF. The GBP is the base for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY. The Australian Dollar (AUD) is its own base against the USD (AUD/USD).


Basis: The difference between the spot price and the futures price.

Basis point: One hundredth of a percentage point.

Bid /Ask Spread: The difference between the bid and offer (ask) prices; also known as a two-way price.

Cable: Trader term for the British Pound Sterling referring to the Sterling/US Dollar exchange rate. Term began due to the fact that the rate was originally transmitted via a transatlantic cable starting in the mid 1800's.

Central bank: The principal monetary authority of a nation, controlled by the national government. It is responsible for issuing currency, setting monetary policy, interest rates, exchange rate policy and the regulation and supervision of the private banking sector. The Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States. Others include the European Central Bank, Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan.

Conversion: The process by which an asset or liability denominated in one currency is exchanged for an asset or liability denominated in another currency.

Cross rates: An exchange rate between two currencies. The cross rate is said to be non-standard in the country where the currency pair is quoted. For example, in the US , a GBP/CHF quote would be considered a cross rate, whereas in the UK or Switzerland it would be one of the primary currency pairs traded.

Currency: A country's unit of exchange issued by their government or central bank whose value is the basis for trade.

Currency (exchange rate) risk: The risk of incurring losses resulting from an adverse change in exchange rates.

Devaluation: Lowering of the value of a country's currency relative to the currencies of other nations. When a nation devalues its currency, the goods it imports become more expensive, while its exports become less expensive abroad and thus more competitive.

Drawdown: The magnitude of a decline in account value, either in percentage or dollar terms, as measured from peak to subsequent trough. For example, if a trader's account increased in value from $10,000 to $20,000, then dropped to $15,000, then increased again to $25,000, that trader would have had a maximum drawdown of $5000 (incurred when the account declined from $20,000 to $15,000) even though that trader's account was never in a loss position from inception.

End of day (mark to market)
: Mark-to-market values a trader's open position at the end of each working day using the closing market rates or revaluation rates. Generally the revaluation rates are market rates at 5pm EST time. Any profit or loss is booked and the trader will start the next day with the position valued at the prior day's closing rate.

Euro: The currency of the European Monetary Union (EMU), which replaced the European Currency Unit (ECU). The countries currently participating in the EMU are Germany, France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Austria, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, Greece, Italy, and Spain.

Exchange rate: The price of one currency stated in terms of another currency. Example: $1 Canadian Dollar (CDN) = $0.7700 US Dollar (USD)

Fixed exchange rate: A country's decision to tie the value of its currency to another country's currency, gold (or another commodity) , or a basket of currencies . In practice, even fixed exchange rates fluctuate between definite upper and lower bands, leading to intervention.

Foreign exchange (Forex): The simultaneous buying of one currency and selling of another in an over-the-counter market.

G-7: The seven leading industrial countries, being the United States, Germany, Japan, France, Britain, Canada, and Italy.

G-10: G7 plus Belgium , Netherlands and Sweden , a group associated with the IMF discussions. Switzerland is sometimes involved.

G-20: A group composed of the Finance Ministers and central bankers of the following 20 countries: Argentina , Australia , Brazil , Canada , China , France , Germany , India , Indonesia , Italy , Japan , Mexico , Russia , Saudi Arabia , South Africa , South Korea , Turkey , the United Kingdom , the United States and the European Union. The IMF and the World Bank also participate. The G-20 was set up to respond to the financial turmoil of 1997-99 through the development of policies that “promote international financial stability”.

Hedge fund: A private, unregulated investment fund for wealthy investors (minimum investments typically begin at US$1 million) specializing in high risk, short-term speculation on bonds, currencies, stock options and derivatives.

Hedging: A strategy designed to reduce investment risk. Its purpose is to reduce the volatility of a portfolio by investing in alternative instruments that offset the risk in the primary portfolio.

London Inter-Bank Offer Rate or LIBOR: The standard for the interest rate that banks charge each other for loans (usually in Eurodollars ). This rate is applicable to the short-term international interbank deposit market, and applies to very large loans borrowed from one day to five years. This market allows banks with liquidity requirements to borrow quickly from other banks with surpluses, enabling banks to avoid holding excessively large amounts of their asset base as liquid assets. The LIBOR is officially fixed once a day by a small group of large London banks, but the rate changes throughout the day.

Leverage: The degree to which an investor or business is utilizing borrowed money. The amount, expressed as a multiple, by which the notional amount traded exceeds the margin required to trade. For example, if the notional amount traded is $100,000 dollars and the required margin is $2000, the trader can trade with 50 times leverage ($100,000/$2000). For investors, leverage means buying on margin to enhance return on value without increasing investment. Leveraged investing can be extremely risky because you can lose not only your money, but the money you borrowed as well.

Liquidity
: The ability of a market to accept large transactions. A function of volume and activity in a market. It is the efficiency and cost effectiveness with which positions can be traded and orders executed. A more liquid market will provide more frequent price quotes at a smaller bid/ask spread.

Long: A position purchasing a particular currency against another currency, anticipating that the value of the purchased currency will appreciate against the second currency.

Margin: Funds that customers must deposit as collateral to cover any potential losses from adverse movements in prices.

Margin Call: A requirement for additional funds or other collateral, from a broker or dealer, to increase margin to a necessary level to guarantee performance on a position that has moved against the customer.

Market Maker: A dealer that supplies prices, and is prepared to buy and sell at those bid and ask prices. All CFTC registered FCMs are market makers.

Pip (tick): The term used in currency markets to represent the smallest incremental move an exchange rate can make. Depending on context, normally one basis point (0.0001 in the case of EUR/USD, GBD/USD, USD/CHF and .01 in the case of USD/JPY).

Position: A view expressed by a trader through the buying or selling of currencies, and can also refer to the amount of currency either owned or owed by an investor.

Premium (cost of carry): The cost or benefit associated with carrying an open position from one day to the next calculated by using the differential in short-term interest rates between the two currencies in the currency pair.

Revaluation: An increase in the foreign exchange value of a currency that is pegged to other currencies or gold.

Revaluation rates: The rate for any period or currency, which is used to revalue a position or book. The revaluation rates are the market rates used when a trader runs an end-of-day to establish profit and loss for the day.

Rollover: The settlement of a deal is rolled forward to another value date with the cost of this process based on the interest rate differential of the two currencies. An overnight swap, specifically the next business day against the following business day.

Short: To sell a currency without actually owning it, and to hold a short position with expectations that the price will decrease so that it can be bought back at a later time at a profit.

Spread: The difference between the bid and offer (ask) prices of a currency; used to measure market liquidity. Narrower spreads usually signify high liquidity.

Spot Price
: Current market price. Settlement of spot transactions normally occurs within two business days.

Swaps: A foreign exchange swap is a trade that combines both a spot and a forward transaction into one deal, or two forward trades with different maturity dates.

Uptick: A new price quote that is higher than the preceding quote for the same currency.



Types of Foreign Exchange Orders

Entry Orders: An order, stop or limit, initiating an open position and executed when a specific price level is reached and/or broken. The execution is handled by the dealing desk and the order is in effect until cancelled by the client.

Entry Limit Orders: An order initiating an open position to sell as the market rises, or buy as the market falls. The client believes the market will reverse direction at the level of the order.

Entry Stop Orders: An order initiating an open position to sell as the market falls, or buy as the market rises. The client placing the order believes that prices will continue to move in the same direction as the previous momentum after hitting the order level.

Limit Orders: A limit order is an order tied to a specific position for the purpose of locking in the gains from that position. A limit entry order placed on a buy position is an order to sell. A limit order placed on a sell position is an order to buy. A limit order remains in effect until the position is liquidated or cancelled by the client.

Market Order: An order to buy or sell which is to be filled immediately at the prevailing currency price.

OCO (One Cancels the Other): A stop-loss order and a limit order linked to a specific position. One order, the stop, is to prevent additional loss on the position, and one order, the limit is to take profit on the position. When either order is executed, closing the position, the other is automatically cancelled.

Stop-Loss Orders: An order linked to a specific position to close that position and prevent additional losses. A stop-loss order placed on a buy position is an order to sell that position. A stop-loss order on a sell position is an order to buy that position. A stop-loss order remains in effect until the position is liquidated or cancelled by the client.